Global Monetary Base - Update through December 2025 and 2026 Forecast

InfraCap Report Update, New York, NY ~  The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors tracks the Global Monetary Base, defined as currency in circulation plus bank reserves, as an indicator of current and future interest rates. This article provides data and insights through December 2025 with data released in January 2026.

Global Monetary Base (GMB):

In December, GMB increased by $341 billion (1.5%) MoM but has fallen by $604 billion (2.5%) YoY. Inflation is caused by excessive monetary growth, but the money supply has fallen by 5.5% over the last three years. We expect that the GMB will stabilize over the next quarter and start growing slowly in 1H’26 as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) are forced to ease monetary policy in response to slower global growth. Recent economic data show that inflation continues to steadily moderate with December Core CPI coming in at 0.2%.

If the Global Monetary Base remains steady in 2026, we expect interest rates to stabilize and decline as central banks cut rates in response to slow or negative growth. Declining global interest rates and a flat to increasing GMB will support the global stock and bond markets