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COMMENTARY
MARKET AND ECONOMIC COMMENTARY:
Weekly & Monthly Updates


PCE Validates our StagDeflation Call
PCE Core-R, adjusted to use market rents, is at the Fed’s arbitrarily low 2% target. We continue to think that tariffs will not have a material impact on inflation

InfraCap Management
Jun 11 min read
173 views


Retail Sales and PPI support our StagDeflation Call
Retail sales control group printed weak for April coming in at negative .2% vs. expectations of positive .3%. The control group figure...

InfraCap Management
May 171 min read
198 views


May 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Commentary and Economic Outlook

InfraCap Management
May 115 min read
634 views


Global Monetary Base - Update through March 2025 and 2025 Forecast
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors tracks the Global Monetary Base, defined as currency in circulation plus bank reserves, as an indicator of current and future interest rates. This article provides data and insights through March 2025 with data released in April 2025.

InfraCap Management
Apr 291 min read
64 views


The Case for Firing the Fed Chair
The President definitely has the authority to remove the Fed Chair for cause according to Title 12 Section 242 of the US Code.

InfraCap Management
Apr 203 min read
244 views


StagDeflation Call Validated by PPI
We reiterate our StagDeflation call as after PPI was released, we now estimate that core PCE will print at 0% at the end of this month and Y/Y core inflation will come in at 2.4%.

InfraCap Management
Apr 141 min read
292 views


April 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Commentary and Economic Outlook

InfraCap Management
Apr 125 min read
107 views


Strong Employment Report To Keep Fed on Hold for Now
The employment report came in strong with the establishment survey registering 228,000 jobs added in March and the household survey...

InfraCap Management
Apr 61 min read
221 views


March 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Commentary and Economic Outlook

InfraCap Management
Mar 115 min read
380 views


Atlanta GDP Estimate Lowered to Negative 1.5% for the First Quarter Indicating Recession Risks Rising
The Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate was revised this morning to negative 1.5% from a prior estimate of positive 2.3%.

InfraCap Management
Mar 22 min read
337 views


Weak PMIs Validate Our Recession Risk Call
Today the Services PMI for January dropped to 49.7 which indicates that services are now contracting.

InfraCap Management
Feb 211 min read
222 views


US Economic Growth Decelerating Rapidly
The US economy is decelerating rapidly with growth likely to drop from a rate of over 3% into the 1-2% range

InfraCap Management
Feb 181 min read
295 views
See Other Top InfraCapStories and Reports


PCE Validates our StagDeflation Call
PCE Core-R, adjusted to use market rents, is at the Fed’s arbitrarily low 2% target. We continue to think that tariffs will not have a material impact on inflation


Retail Sales and PPI support our StagDeflation Call
Retail sales control group printed weak for April coming in at negative .2% vs. expectations of positive .3%. The control group figure...


May 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Commentary and Economic Outlook
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