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COMMENTARY
MARKET AND ECONOMIC COMMENTARY:
Weekly & Monthly Updates


Weak Economic Data Supports 3 Fed Rate Cuts this Year
The US economy is weakening and will enter a recession if the Fed does not cut interest rates significantly this year.

InfraCap Management
Aug 32 min read


Trade Deals Imply Significantly Lower Budget Deficits
he US agreement with the EU setting a 15% tariff on most goods sets a floor of at least 15% on all imports with many categories like steel and aluminum having tariffs of 50%

InfraCap Management
Jul 281 min read


July 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Explore the July 2025 Economic Outlook featuring stock market projections, bond market analysis, inflation forecasts, and commodity trends. Get insights on Fed policy, tariff impacts, and the evolving job market.

InfraCap Management
Jul 208 min read


Tariffs Projected to Significantly Lower the Budget Deficit
Tariffs are the equivalent of a sales tax, although, unlike a pure sales tax, exporters and the retail value chain do absorb a portion...

InfraCap Management
Jul 202 min read


Global Monetary Base - Update through June 2025 and 2025 Forecast
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors tracks the Global Monetary Base, defined as currency in circulation plus bank reserves, as an indicator of current and future interest rates. This article provides data and insights through June 2025 with data released in July 2025.

InfraCap Management
Jul 201 min read


June 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Explore the June 2025 Economic Outlook featuring stock market projections, bond market analysis, inflation forecasts, and commodity trends. Get insights on Fed policy, tariff impacts, and the evolving job market.

InfraCap Management
Jun 217 min read


Oil Price Spike to Cause Stagnation
We now believe that the recent surge in oil prices will cause an uptick in inflation resulting in stagnation, so we are declaring victory...

InfraCap Management
Jun 182 min read


Claims and PPI Confirm Our StagDeflation Call
Unemployment claims, a critical leading indicator of the job market, increased with weekly claims up to 248k vs. expectations of 242k and continuing claims rising to 1,956k vs. expectations of 1,910k.

InfraCap Management
Jun 121 min read


Cool CPI Validates Our Stag Deflation Call
Importantly, the deeply lagged shelter component finally decelerated with rent declining to .2% from .3% and owners equivalent rent declining to .3% from .4%.

InfraCap Management
Jun 121 min read


PCE Validates our StagDeflation Call
PCE Core-R, adjusted to use market rents, is at the Fed’s arbitrarily low 2% target. We continue to think that tariffs will not have a material impact on inflation

InfraCap Management
Jun 11 min read


Retail Sales and PPI support our StagDeflation Call
Retail sales control group printed weak for April coming in at negative .2% vs. expectations of positive .3%. The control group figure...

InfraCap Management
May 171 min read


May 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Commentary and Economic Outlook

InfraCap Management
May 115 min read
See Other Top InfraCapStories and Reports


Weak Economic Data Supports 3 Fed Rate Cuts this Year
The US economy is weakening and will enter a recession if the Fed does not cut interest rates significantly this year.


Tariffs Projected to Significantly Lower the Budget Deficit
Tariffs are the equivalent of a sales tax, although, unlike a pure sales tax, exporters and the retail value chain do absorb a portion...


June 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Explore the June 2025 Economic Outlook featuring stock market projections, bond market analysis, inflation forecasts, and commodity trends. Get insights on Fed policy, tariff impacts, and the evolving job market.
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