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COMMENTARY
MARKET AND ECONOMIC COMMENTARY:
Weekly & Monthly Updates


June 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Explore the June 2025 Economic Outlook featuring stock market projections, bond market analysis, inflation forecasts, and commodity trends. Get insights on Fed policy, tariff impacts, and the evolving job market.

InfraCap Management
Jun 217 min read


Oil Price Spike to Cause Stagnation
We now believe that the recent surge in oil prices will cause an uptick in inflation resulting in stagnation, so we are declaring victory...

InfraCap Management
Jun 182 min read


Claims and PPI Confirm Our StagDeflation Call
Unemployment claims, a critical leading indicator of the job market, increased with weekly claims up to 248k vs. expectations of 242k and continuing claims rising to 1,956k vs. expectations of 1,910k.

InfraCap Management
Jun 121 min read


Cool CPI Validates Our Stag Deflation Call
Importantly, the deeply lagged shelter component finally decelerated with rent declining to .2% from .3% and owners equivalent rent declining to .3% from .4%.

InfraCap Management
Jun 121 min read


PCE Validates our StagDeflation Call
PCE Core-R, adjusted to use market rents, is at the Fed’s arbitrarily low 2% target. We continue to think that tariffs will not have a material impact on inflation

InfraCap Management
Jun 11 min read


Retail Sales and PPI support our StagDeflation Call
Retail sales control group printed weak for April coming in at negative .2% vs. expectations of positive .3%. The control group figure...

InfraCap Management
May 171 min read


May 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Commentary and Economic Outlook

InfraCap Management
May 115 min read


Global Monetary Base - Update through March 2025 and 2025 Forecast
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors tracks the Global Monetary Base, defined as currency in circulation plus bank reserves, as an indicator of current and future interest rates. This article provides data and insights through March 2025 with data released in April 2025.

InfraCap Management
Apr 291 min read


The Case for Firing the Fed Chair
The President definitely has the authority to remove the Fed Chair for cause according to Title 12 Section 242 of the US Code.

InfraCap Management
Apr 203 min read


StagDeflation Call Validated by PPI
We reiterate our StagDeflation call as after PPI was released, we now estimate that core PCE will print at 0% at the end of this month and Y/Y core inflation will come in at 2.4%.

InfraCap Management
Apr 141 min read


April 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Commentary and Economic Outlook

InfraCap Management
Apr 125 min read


Strong Employment Report To Keep Fed on Hold for Now
The employment report came in strong with the establishment survey registering 228,000 jobs added in March and the household survey...

InfraCap Management
Apr 61 min read
See Other Top InfraCapStories and Reports


June 2025 Commentary and Economic Outlook
Explore the June 2025 Economic Outlook featuring stock market projections, bond market analysis, inflation forecasts, and commodity trends. Get insights on Fed policy, tariff impacts, and the evolving job market.


Oil Price Spike to Cause Stagnation
We now believe that the recent surge in oil prices will cause an uptick in inflation resulting in stagnation, so we are declaring victory...


Claims and PPI Confirm Our StagDeflation Call
Unemployment claims, a critical leading indicator of the job market, increased with weekly claims up to 248k vs. expectations of 242k and continuing claims rising to 1,956k vs. expectations of 1,910k.
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