Headline CPI printed in line at .6% and year over year came in at 3.7% while core CPI printed hot at .3% vs. expectations of .2% and year over year rose to 2.6% vs. consensus at 2.5%, The bulk of the surprise came from a hot shelter print at .4% vs. the prior 3-month average of .1%. The volatile lodging away from home was 2% for the month which is an annual rate of 20%. The shelter component is highly unreliable as the BLS uses 6 different panels for its surveys that it only updates...

Global central banks have irrationally reacted to an oil price shock with rate hikes, led by the ECB. This action is contrary to conventional economic theory as oil price spikes weaken the economy and rate increases further weaken the economic growth but do nothing to address energy driven inflation. That is why central bank inflation targets are based on core inflation not headline inflation. The global bond melt down is led by the French 10-year which is down over a point today to 4.9%...

Explore the October 2026 Economic Outlook featuring Economy, Stocks, and Bond market analysis