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Surging Jobless Claims and In Line CPI validate our Bullish rate Outlook

The 10-year treasury yield dipped below 4% briefly after jobless claims came in at 263,000 which is the highest level since the end of the Pandemic in late 2021.  Jobless claims are a leading indicator of the labor market whereas the actual monthly employment report is a lagging indicator, particularly given a trend of large negative revisions.  CPI Core printed in line at .3 with the data series continuing to be distorted by the archaic and arbitrary calculation of shelter wit Owner’s Equivalent Rent inexplicable rising to .4% and 4% Y/Y with actual market rents approximately flat.  CPI-R core, which utilizes real time data to estimate shelter vs. the two-year delayed data used in CPI-R, is running at only 1.7% (see figure below). Volatile components of CPI caused the core rate to be elevated with airline fares rising 5.9%, used cars up 1% and motor vehicle maintenance up 2.4%.


CPI-R continues to be a leading indicator for CPI-U

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We continue to be bullish on 10-year treasuries with a 3.5-4.0% year-end target based on the fact that the interest sensitive sectors of the US economy, housing and construction, are in recession which is impacting the job market (see figure below).  This weakening of the job market will force the Fed to cut 3 times this year and reach the neutral rate of 2.75-3.0% in the first half of 2026.   The US 10-year is 70% corelated with the expected terminal rate of Fed Funds which is currently 3.00% with a normal spread being 1.05% (see figure below).  We are also bullish on stocks as Fed rate cuts and momentum in AI drive stock prices with our upside target on the S&P at 7,000 which represents 23x our 2026 S&P earnings estimate.


Investment Component of GDP Drives Economic Cycles

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Market implied policy rate continues to forecast 10-year yields

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DISCLOSURE

Opinions represented on this website are subject to change and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This data was prepared using sources of information generally believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For more information about the Funds, Fund strategies or Infrastructure Capital, please reach out to Craig Starr at 212-763-8336 (Craig.Starr@icmllc.com).

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Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus with this and other information about the InfraCap Small Cap Income ETF, please click here. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. For more information, please reach out to William Heffernan at 212-763-8326 or icap-operations@infracap-funds.com.

 

The Funds are distributed either by Quasar Distributors, LLC or by VP Distributors, LLC, an affiliate of Virtus ETF Advisers, LLC. ICAP and SCAP ETFs are distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. PFFA, PFFR, and AMZA ETFs are distributed by VP Distributors, LLC an affiliated of Virtus ETF Advisers, LLC.

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Current income is a primary objective in most, but not all, of ICA's investing activities. Consequently, the focus is generally on companies that generate and distribute substantial streams of free cash flow. This approach is based on the belief that tangible assets that produce free cash flow have intrinsic values that are unlikely to deteriorate over time. For more information, please visit infracapfunds.com.

 

The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap U.S. stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. In addition, there is a highly liquid option market according to total option volumes, as of December 8, 2023 *Morningstar ratings are based on risk-adjusted returns. Strong ratings are not indicative of positive fund performance. Morningstar Rating: Five star ranking awards for three year performance was prepared by Morningstar, an independent third party. As of 09/30/2023, PFFA was rated 5 stars out of 64 funds, 1 stars out of 58 funds and has no rating out of 38 funds within the US Fund Preferred Stock category for the 3-, 5- and 10 year periods, respectively. As of 09/30/2023, AMZA was rated 5 stars out of 100 funds, 1 stars out of 91 funds and no rating out of 0 funds within the Energy Limited Partnership category for the 3-, 5- and 10 year periods, respectively. These ratings are not indicative of a fund's future results or the future success of the adviser in managing its other funds. Approximately 10% of funds received 5 star award (top ten) in these categories. These category rankings only reflects two category rankings produced by Morningstar. The Adviser did not pay a fee to participate in the in Morningstar’s rating system. Morningstar ratings do not represent the entire universe of Preferred Stock or Energy limited Partnership funds offered to investors, rather this rating represents a subset of Preferred Stock and Energy Limited Partnership funds. For more information about the ranking and rating process, please contact Morningstar at 1-312-384-4000, or visit https://bit.ly/440AjUT.

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A word about SCAP risk:  Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, among others, investing in equities securities, dividend paying securities, utilities, small-, mid- and large-capitalization companies, real estate investment trusts, master limited partnerships, foreign investments and emerging, debt securities, depositary receipts, market events, operational, high portfolio turnover, trading issues, active management, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, which may make these investments volatile in price. Foreign investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, and changes in currency exchange rates which may negatively impact the Fund’s returns. Small and Medium-capitalization companies, foreign investments and high yielding equity and debt securities may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund is a recently organized investment company with no operating history. Please see prospectus for discussion of risks. Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a down market.  SCAP is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC.

 

A word about ICAP Risk: Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, among others, investing in equities securities, dividend paying securities, utilities, preferred stocks, leverage, short sales, small-, mid- and large-capitalization companies, real estate investment trusts, master limited partnerships, foreign investments and emerging, debt securities, depositary receipts, market events, operational, high portfolio turnover, trading issues, options, active management, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, which may make these investments volatile in price. Foreign investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, and changes in currency exchange rates which may negatively impact the Fund's returns. Small and Medium-capitalization companies, foreign investments, options, leverage, short sales, and high yielding equity and debt securities may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund is a recently organized investment company with no operating history. Please see prospectus for discussion of risks. ICAP fund distributor, Quasar Distributors, LLC.

 

Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (NYSE: PFFA): Exchange Traded Funds: The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track. The costs of owning the ETF may exceed the cost of investing directly in the underlying securities. Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks may decline in price, fail to pay dividends, or be illiquid. Non-Diversified: The Fund is non-diversified and may be more susceptible to factors negatively impacting its holdings to the extent that each security represents a larger portion of the Fund’s assets. Short Sales: The Fund may engage in short sales, and may experience a loss if the price of a borrowed security increases before the date on which the Fund replaces the security. Leverage: When a Fund leverages its portfolio, the value of its shares may be more volatile and all other risks may be compounded. Derivatives: Investments in derivatives such as futures, options, forwards, and swaps may increase volatility or cause a loss greater than the principal investment. No Guarantee: There is no guarantee that the portfolio will meet its objective. Prospectus: For additional information on risks, please see the Fund’s prospectus. 

 

InfraCap REIT Preferred ETF (NYSE: PFFR): Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF): The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities it is designed to track. The costs of owning the ETF may exceed the cost of investing directly in the underlying securities. Preferred Stocks: Preferred stocks may decline in price, fail to pay dividends, or be illiquid. Real Estate Investments: The Fund may be negatively affected by factors specific to the real estate market, including interest rates, leverage, property, and management. Industry/Sector Concentration: A Fund that focuses its investments in a particular industry or sector will be more sensitive to conditions that affect that industry or sector than a non-concentrated Fund. Passive Strategy/Index Risk: A passive investment strategy seeking to track the performance of the underlying index may result in the Fund holding securities regardless of market conditions or their current or projected performance. This could cause the Fund’s returns to be lower than if the Fund employed an active strategy. Correlation to Index: The performance of the Fund and its index may vary somewhat due to factors such as Fund flows, transaction costs, and timing differences associated with additions to and deletions from its index. Market Volatility: Securities in the Fund may go up or down in response to the prospects of individual companies and general economic conditions. Price changes may be short or long-term. Prospectus: For additional information on risks, please see the Fund’s prospectus.

 

InfraCap MLP ETF (NYSE: AMZA): Exchange Traded Funds: The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track. The costs of owning the ETF may exceed the cost of investing directly in the underlying securities. MLP Interest Rates: As yield-based investments, MLPs carry interest rate risk and may underperform in rising interest rate environments. Additionally, when investors have heightened fears about the economy, the risk spread between MLPs and competing investment options can widen, which may have an adverse effect on the stock price of MLPs. Rising interest rates may increase the potential cost of MLPs financing projects or cost of operations, and may affect the demand for MLP investments, either of which may result in lower performance by or distributions from the Fund’s MLP investments. Industry/Sector Concentration: A fund that focuses its investments in a particular industry or sector will be more sensitive to conditions that affect that industry or sector than a non-concentrated fund. Short Sales: The fund may engage in short sales, and may experience a loss if the price of a borrowed security increases before the date on which the fund replaces the security. Leverage: When a fund leverages its portfolio, the value of its shares may be more volatile and all other risks may be compounded. Derivatives: Investments in derivatives such as futures, options, forwards, and swaps may increase volatility or cause a loss greater than the principal investment. MLPs: Investments in Master Limited Partnerships may be adversely impacted by tax law changes, regulations, or factors affecting underlying assets. No Guarantee: There is no guarantee that the portfolio will meet its objective. Prospectus: For additional information on risks, please see the fund’s prospectus.

 

Performance Data: Performance data quoted backtested results. Backtested Performance was derived from the retroactive application of a model developed with the benefit of hindsight. Backtested performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Please visit www.virtusetfs.com for performance data current to the most recent month-end and the Fund’s standard performance information. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Indices / Performance Terminology Used: For more information regarding the underlying data, calculations, or terminology used, please reach out to us. Please CLICK HERE to see a glossary of terminology and indices used.

 

Privacy Policy:  Protecting your privacy and personal information is important to us. Go to www.infracapfunds.com/privacy-policy to view our full policy.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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